Why Waiting for Housing to Get Cheaper in Williamsburg Might Backfire
By Brad Anderson
Your Friend in Real Estate
I’ve been building out my YouTube channel, Living in Williamsburg | Brad Anderson, for about four months now. Most videos land somewhere around 100 to 200 views, which is fine (that’s just how the long game of YouTube works, you plant a lot of seeds before anything grows). But one video popped, 1,400 views in two weeks. The title: “Should You Buy a House Now or Wait?”
That told me something. A lot of people are chewing on this question. If I strip away the video-title version of it and ask what people actually want to know, it’s this: are homes going to get any more affordable any time soon?
I’ll do here what I didn’t do directly enough in that video. I’ll just answer it.
No. I don’t think they are.
Homeownership Is Supposed to Build Wealth. That's Getting Harder.
Homeownership has traditionally been one of the primary ways American families build wealth. But a recent study from the National Association of REALTORS® shows that wealth-building opportunity is increasingly being denied to younger buyers. The median age of a home buyer in 2025 was 59 years old, and for the first time ever, the median age of a first-time home buyer was 40. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index remains only slightly above the level at which a median income household can qualify for a median priced home.
That is NOT good for our country.
I know there are a lot of factors behind that number, rates, prices, student debt, delayed marriage, take your pick. But I don’t want fear or uncertainty to be one of them. Not for you, and not for anyone reading this who’s on the fence.
The Correction Everyone’s Waiting For Hasn’t Shown Up
Here in Williamsburg and throughout much of Hampton Roads, we still haven’t seen the housing correction many buyers have been waiting for. Inventory has increased, and buyers have more negotiating power than they did a few years ago, but Hampton Roads still had only about 2.85 months of housing inventory in July. That’s a seller’s market by most definitions, just a less lopsided one.
Why? Obviously there are many reasons. But I think there’s one enormous economic force that isn’t getting nearly enough attention.
$1 Trillion Just to Pay the Interest
I recently came across a headline that read: “US Debt-Servicing Payments Climb 200% In Five Years.” It was commentary from Bloomberg strategist Mark Cudmore, republished by ZeroHedge.
Whatever you think about the politics surrounding federal spending, the underlying numbers are hard to ignore.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal net interest expense will rise from approximately $970 billion in 2025 to more than $1 trillion in 2026, and it expects that share of the economy to keep growing over the next decade.
I’m a REALTOR® now, but before that I was an econ major, and I later earned my MBA from William & Mary. When I look at those numbers, I see a problem that eventually has to be dealt with. A heavily indebted government has a handful of choices. It can raise taxes. Cut spending. Grow the economy fast enough that the debt becomes more manageable. Or, intentionally or otherwise, allow inflation to reduce the real value of money and long-term debt.
Guess which one is politically easiest?
Milton Friedman had a line about this that I think about a lot, mostly because he said it so much better, and so much funnier, than I ever could. He called inflation “taxation without legislation.” No vote required. No bill to sign. It just happens to the money sitting in your account while everyone argues about something else. There’s a great old clip of him explaining it, worth two minutes if you’ve never seen it.
Let Me Make This as Simple as I Can
Here’s the mechanism, stripped all the way down. Say you borrow $100 from me today, and bananas cost $1 each. That $100 is worth 100 bananas to you.
A few years pass. Inflation happens. Bananas now cost $2 each. You still owe me $100 on paper, nothing about the loan changed. But if you’re the one selling bananas for a living, you now only have to sell 50 of them to hand me back that $100, instead of the 100 it would have taken before.
You borrowed 100 bananas worth of value. You paid back 50 bananas worth of value. The number on the loan never moved. What moved was what it actually cost you to repay it. Inflation stinks if you’re the one buying bananas to feed your family. But it can actually work in your favor IF YOU OWE money based on yesterday’s price point.
That’s the game the federal government is playing with money it owes (whether that’s fully intentional or just the path of least resistance, I’ll let you decide). And honestly, it’s a game an individual homeowner can play too.
This Is Exactly What a Fixed Rate Mortgage Does for You
A 30 year fixed rate mortgage locks in a number, your principal and interest payment, in today’s dollars. Your taxes can rise. Your insurance can rise. Maintenance certainly isn’t fixed. But that core payment doesn’t move.
If inflation continues over the next 10 or 20 years, your income probably rises with it, and over long enough stretches, home values tend to reflect the higher price level too. Your mortgage payment does not get adjusted upward to match. You borrowed today’s dollars and you get thirty years to pay them back with dollars that are worth less.
That’s the same advantage inflation gives any long-term borrower, including the federal government. Except in your case, you’re also living in the asset securing the loan.
There’s a second piece backing this up: supply. Freddie Mac estimates the United States remains short approximately 3.7 million housing units relative to long-term demand. That doesn’t guarantee prices keep climbing everywhere. But it puts a pretty substantial floor under demand in markets like ours. Put the supply shortage and the debt-inflation math together, and a $500,000 house doesn’t necessarily become cheaper while you wait. It may just become a $600,000 house measured in cheaper dollars.
I'm Not Saying "Buy Any House at Any Price"
Please don’t misunderstand my argument.
I’m a real estate agent. I make a living selling houses. You should be skeptical when a REALTOR® tells you it’s a great time to buy.
Sometimes it isn’t.
You shouldn’t buy a house you can’t afford. You shouldn’t assume appreciation will bail you out of a bad purchase. You shouldn’t stretch yourself financially based on somebody’s prediction about inflation, including mine.
But I also wouldn’t assume today’s expensive house automatically becomes tomorrow’s bargain. The median home buyer is now 59, the median first-time buyer is now 40, and affordability is genuinely difficult. We remain millions of homes short of long-term demand. Federal debt and the cost of servicing it keep climbing. Those aren’t disconnected facts. They’re pieces of the same puzzle.
If your plan is to buy a home, or to move from the home you own into the one your family actually needs, here’s the question worth sitting with: what if waiting for housing to become affordable again just means waiting while the dollar becomes less valuable instead? For some buyers, locking in the house and the payment at today’s price level will prove more valuable than waiting for yesterday’s prices to come back. Because they may never come back.
Need Local Guidance on Your Next Home Purchase?
Whether you are buying your first home in Williamsburg or relocating across the Virginia Peninsula, you don’t have to navigate local market conditions, home inspections, or complex negotiations alone.
- Check out the Free Buyer’s Guide: Get step-by-step preparation before you start viewing homes.
- Have Questions About an Inspection Report? Call Brad Anderson directly at (757) 816-2968 or email BradAndersonRealEstate@gmail.com.
Your Friend in Real Estate,
Brad Anderson
(757) 816-2968
BradAndersonRealEstate@gmail.com
Brad Anderson is a licensed REALTOR® with eXp Realty, holding an MBA from William & Mary and bringing nearly 20 years of real estate experience to buyers and sellers across Williamsburg, Yorktown, Newport News, and the Virginia Peninsula.
Hi, I’m Brad Anderson!
I’m your local Williamsburg real estate agent and, most importantly, your ‘Friend in Real Estate.’
Beyond just market insights for Williamsburg and Peninsula,
I’m here to guide you through every aspect of your journey. That includes even those heartfelt decisions about what truly matters when you’re moving.
I’ll be right there beside you as we explore our unique market, making sure you feel confident and truly supported.
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Frequently Asked Questions:
Why haven't home prices dropped in Williamsburg and Hampton Roads despite high interest rates?
While mortgage rates and home prices have impacted affordability, the local real estate market is heavily constrained by supply. The U.S. faces a shortage of approximately 3.7 million housing units, and regional inventory across Hampton Roads remains tight—hovering at under 3 months of supply. Without a massive surge in new inventory, consistent demand continues to keep a strong floor under local home prices.
How does buying a home act as an inflation hedge?
When you purchase a home with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, your principal and interest payment is locked in today’s dollars. As persistent national debt and economic forces drive inflation over time, everyday prices and incomes tend to rise—but your fixed mortgage payment never increases. Essentially, you are paying off today’s fixed housing cost using less valuable, future inflated dollars.
Is it better to buy a home now or wait for market prices to come down?
Waiting for a major market correction carries the risk that home prices won’t drop, while the purchasing power of your savings continues to erode due to inflation. By buying when you are financially ready, you lock in your housing costs today, start building equity, and gain the option to refinance if interest rates drop in the future.
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